DI Poll changing games discussion and predictions

RavagingBeast

So I thought I would get a discussion about some of the games that have implications for the next DI poll. Here is a list of those games. Feel free to make predictions or discuss as you like or bring up another game that you think may be a poll changer (they usually need to involve a ranked team).

Friday 3/9
#10 Colorado - 6 @ #5 Chapman - 9
#22 Boston U - 2 vs #13 Va Tech - 8 (neutral location)

Saturday 3/10
#1 CSU - 9 @ #9 ASU - 6
NR Sonoma St - 11 @ #23 Chico St - 7
#15 Minn Duluth - 6 @ #2 Cal Poly - 9
#14 Buffalo - 9 @ #12 Clemson -8

Sunday 3/11
#17 Stanford - 5 vs #1 CSU - 15 (neutral location)
#20 Northeastern - 3 @ #9 ASU - 6
#10 Colorado - 2 @ NR LMU - 6
NR Minnesota - 8 @ #23 Chico St - 14

Monday 3/12 (not factored into the next poll)
#15 Minn Duluth - 3 @ #5 Chapman - 15

Probably the most intriguing games to me are the CU/Chapman game and the Buffalo/Clemson game. We do not know how Colorado or Buffalo are going to look this season, but we already know a lot about Chapman and Clemson. This should finally let us know where to rank these teams. Same goes for a few other teams who have not played any quality games (Minn Duluth) or teams who have not played at all (Boston U). If I had to guess, I would go with the teams who have played some games already, but the margin of victory could tell us something.

ASU at home against CSU could put my doubts about the Sun Devils to rest. I have been very critical of their offense, but if they put up a good showing and/or manage to win, then my opinion will be changed. I don't think Minn Duluth will fare well in CA this weekend. They have scheduled some very tough games. Good luck to them.

I included unranked Sonoma State because part of me thinks they can pull off the win over Chico if they can figure out how to break the zone. We used to throw a zone at them in my playing days at UCSB and Sonoma had a very difficult time with it. Let's see if things have changed.

I also included unranked Minnesota because of their game against Minn Duluth in which they seemed to dominate the entire game until the end. There may finally be some competition for UMD in the UMLL. It's been around 8 years since the Gophers made the tournament. Also, Chico is only #23.

If Va Tech can dominate BU, then the April 7 game against Clemson will likely decide the best in the SELC. I am looking forward to that game.

So that's my 2 cents on the weekend. Back to work for me.

slclax28

Is scheduling Monday games then a disadvantage? UCSB vs Boston College didn't factor into the last poll but its been a week and so is the significance of Monday win forgotten a bit by the voters, same goes for Chapman v. Duluth this week

RavagingBeast

I think scheduling potential poll changing games during the week hurts. UCSB beat Cal Poly on Wednesday last week, but are still 2 spots behind them. I'm sure that some pollsters will forget about the BC game too (at least the 3-4 that forget to vote each week).

MizzouLaxFan

I have more confidence in the laxpower computer rankings than the inside lacrosse poll. For all I know there are a handful of coaches exchanging text messages to come up with what is being called a "national" poll. At least laxpower has a formula that has turned out to be fairly accurate over time. I can't even find previous year mcla coaches polls to see if they turned out to be accurate when compared to the final tournament brackets.

RavagingBeast

You must be new to this. The coaches polls were very accurate in years past. They had 30 voters and there was a lot of arguing over the outcomes, but in the end, they usually got it right. They have yet to explain who is voting or how many voters are in this new poll, but I think there are 15 voters (if they all vote) and they are all coaches from around the league. From the two voters I know, I am pretty confident that they are doing a lot more than sending some text messages around. They watch a lot of film and are in contact with a people all around the league.

So I have more confidence in this poll than laxpower ranking, but I do not have more confidence than the polls from past seasons. A little explanation from IL would go a long way in restoring my faith, but as of now, it is the only poll we have. As we play more games, it will work itself out.

MizzouLaxFan

Not really new to it, just getting more interested and curious recently. I agree that more games will help sort it out. Some level of transparency or communication from MCLA would go a long way to legitimize the poll.

rick_roll

MizzouLaxFan said:
I have more confidence in the laxpower computer rankings than the inside lacrosse poll. For all I know there are a handful of coaches exchanging text messages to come up with what is being called a "national" poll. At least laxpower has a formula that has turned out to be fairly accurate over time. I can't even find previous year mcla coaches polls to see if they turned out to be accurate when compared to the final tournament brackets.

Laxpower has a number of rankings, all of which are the least bit clear (except SOS).

Computer Rankings:
1 Virginia Tech
2 UC Santa Barbara
3 Colorado State
4 Minnesota - Duluth
5 Cal Poly
6 Chapman
7 Brigham Young
8 Chico State
9 Oregon
10 Northeastern

These rankings are out of whack, I don't have as much confidence in these rankings as I do the polls, just sayin. Back when Collegelax.us was still live, team's weekly poll movements were tracked in a timeline fashion which was very cool feature. Too bad its gone :(

RavagingBeast

Based on results from yesterday, I think all of the teams are appropriately ranked except for possibly BU. Either they are not as good as predicted or Va Tech is better than their ranking. I would go with the latter. I think Va Tech is going to surprise a team or two this year. They have a couple more PCLL teams to play and Clemson. It's a bummer that they won't be playing any top 10 teams.

Colorado put up a decent showing against Chapman in their first game of the season. Had it even at the half, but probably ran out of steam. They are not in game shape yet is one of my guesses, so a #10 ranking will do for now.

RavagingBeast

New games for this week. Lots of teams are starting spring break, so some of the games are during the week.

Wednesday 3/14
#17 Utah - 5 @ #5 DII Westminster - 15
#15 Minn Duluth - 5 @ #2 UCSB -12
#11 Buffalo - 4 @ #24 FSU - 5
(Game canceled due to lightening at the half and will not be rescheduled)

Friday 3/16
#18 Illinois - 3 @ #7 Oregon - 21
#13 Clemson - 6 @ #18 Colorado - 5 OT

Saturday 3/17
#8 ASU - 6 @ #5 Chapman - 10
#18 Illinois - 4 vs NR Simon Fraser - 8 (neutral location)
#21 LMU - 10 @ NR San Diego - 8
#3 BYU - 16 @ #15 Minn-Duluth - 8
NR South Carolina - 11 @ #9 Va. Tech - 12

What are people's thoughts?

czechinthepipes

Did Utah really lose to Westminster 15-5?

I can't wait for the Chapman vs. ASU game, I am going to try to go, if not luckily it will be online. I think it will be very close (they are starting to have a nice rivalry).

Some really good games there. We will see if LMU's win against CU was a bit of a fluke or if they are deserving of a ranking. And BYU at Duluth should be pretty good as well.

RavagingBeast

Oregon then SFU beating down on Illinois was not a surprise. There may not be a team in the GRLC ranked after this week. The big surprise was the one goal game between S. Carolina and Va Tech. I'll bet they make it into the top 25 next week.

SoCoLax2

There might not be a team in the GRLC ranked, but someone has to win that league.

Jonh

Give the Spiders of Richmond some respect in the polls this week. 5-0 after a sound victory over South Carolina!

SoCoLax2

Jonh said:
Give the Spiders of Richmond some respect in the polls this week. 5-0 after a sound victory over South Carolina!

5-0 but other than SC haven't played anyone, and barely beat a winless Miami team. They play 0 OOC games. I'd at least wait until they play Va Tech before thinking about them as a Top 25 team.

Jonh

Worry more about coaching then responding to posts coach. Just exciting about a team I like. Let us enjoy a nice first season in the MCLA. Go Spiders!

SoCoLax2

Jonh said:
Worry more about coaching then responding to posts coach. Just exciting about a team I like. Let us enjoy a nice first season in the MCLA. Go Spiders!

I'm not trying to rain on your parade over in Richmond, I'm just saying the way to get ranked is by playing ranked teams and doing well. Va Tech is ranked, there isn't a bench mark to compare Richmond to so far until they play that game.

As for coaching, I can do what I like in my free time and this is a forum, if you're going to post here don't get mad when someone responds to you.

Don_Vito_Corleone

Where are people going to be ranking Clemson now? Going west I think for the first time in school history and coming away with 2 very impressive wins (sorry Nebraska, can't count as a strong team). Top 10?

skitzofrenzy

Not top ten but they are perfect where they are currently. Losing to bc and buffalo did em over on being in the top ten

RavagingBeast

Don_Vito_Corleone said:
Where are people going to be ranking Clemson now? Going west I think for the first time in school history and coming away with 2 very impressive wins (sorry Nebraska, can't count as a strong team). Top 10?

Why would they move anywhere? They beat one top 25 team and two unranked teams. If anything, the close, low scoring game against UNH will hurt them. Thankfully for Clemson, no team ranked behind them had an amazing week. Utah and Illinois both had terrible losses against either a DII team or a an unranked team. There is a small chance that those wins will push Clemson ahead of Mich State because because they are only 3 points apart.

slclax28

How do you rank Duluth? they have lost 4 straight, but those 4 have been to 2-4 ranked teams. I am excited to see how they do against ASU and what must be a desperate CU team at this point of the season... CU has a hard schedule this weekend with Arizona a day off then Duluth and ASU the day after.... does a losing record CU team make the tournament this year if they upset CSU (similar to michigan win two seasons ago)

RavagingBeast

I think Duluth is fine where they are for the time being. If you check out laxmagazine.com, Jac and I have a lengthy discussion about Duluth. I think they will lose to ASU, but beat CU. If CU can beat two teams in the top 10 and do not get routed by anyone, I see them making the tournament.

RavagingBeast

Some big time games this week! What do people think?

Friday 3/23
#10 Buffalo - 10 @ #22 Pitt - 12
#4 Cal Poly - 9 @ #1 CSU - 8 OT
#16 Minn Duluth - 3 @ #8 ASU - 10
#17 Colorado - 9 @ NR Arizona - 10
NR Simon Fraser - 11 @ #5 Chapman - 13
#11 Boston College - 4 vs #21 Northeastern - 6 (neutral location in Boston)

Saturday 3/24
#13 Michigan St - 17 @ #22 Pitt - 16
#7 Oregon - 11 @ #3 BYU - 21

Sunday 3/25
#16 Minn Duluth - 7 vs #17 Colorado - 14 (neutral location in Tempe, AZ)
#10 Buffalo - 8 vs #13 Michigan St. - 6 (neutral location Pittsburgh)
#24 Geogia - 3 @ #9 Va Tech - 4
NR Simon Fraser - 10 @ #19 LMU - 9

Monday 3/26 (not affecting the next poll)
NR Santa Clara - 8 @ #23 FSU - 11
#7 Oregon -13 @ #18 Utah - 6
#17 Colorado - 5 @ #8 ASU - 4

slclax28

Duluth Vs ASU should be an awesome match up of two awesome goalies

czechinthepipes

RavagingBeast said:
Some big time games this week! What do people think?

Friday 3/23
#10 Buffalo @ #22 Pitt
#4 Cal Poly @ #1 CSU
#16 Minn Duluth @ #8 ASU
#17 Colorado @ NR Arizona
#11 Boston College vs #21 Northeastern (neutral location in Boston)

Saturday 3/24
#13 Michigan St @ #22 Pitt
#7 Oregon @ #3 BYU

Sunday 3/25
#16 Minn Duluth vs #17 Colorado (neutral location in Tempe, AZ)
#10 Buffalo vs #13 Michigan St. (neutral location Pittsburgh)
#24 Geogia @ #9 Va Tech
NR Simon Fraser @ #19 LMU

Monday 3/26 (not affecting the next poll)
NR Santa Clara @ #23 FSU
#7 Oregon @ #18 Utah
#17 Colorado @ #8 ASU

~ Buffalo over Pitt by 4.
~ CSU over Cal Poly by 1-2 (could go either way).
~ ASU over Minn Duluth by 6.
~ Colorado over Arizona by 5.
~ Boston College over Northeastern by 6.

~ Mich St over Pitt by 7 (Pitt playing back to back days against top 15 will be rough)
~ BYU over Oregon by 2-3.

~ Colorado over Minn Duluth by 1. (really tough to pick).
~ Mich St. over Buffalo by 1-2 (also could go either way)
~ Va Tech over Georgia by 8
~ LMU over Simon Fraser by 2

~ FSU over Santa Clara by 1-2 (really close)
~ Oregon over Utah by 6-7
~ ASU over Colorado by 4

That is a big weekend, could see a lot of rankings change.

Gotta be honest, I know (and greatly appreciate) Laxallstars stepping up and having a forum, all while doing an awesome job on blogging lacrosse news but I wish they could update their forum a bit. Basic writing code (bold, italics, underline, etc...) would be nice.

RavagingBeast

Take out the underscore _ and you can get those formats.
<_b_> bold <_/b_>
<_i_> italics <_/i_>
<_u_> underline <_/u_>

I don't even understand all of this html or whatever it is, but it's not too difficult to do.

Good picks though. I agree that the CU/Duluth game is the toughest. By your picks, you do not have any upsets. Very safe picks.

czechinthepipes

Alright cool, thanks.
I tried some basic forum codes but didn't work. I appreciate it.

Thanks, it really was tough. And ya it was, that game can go anyway; and that is very true, I usually am a bit on the safe side... haha.

SoCoLax2

Final out of Boston: Northeastern over Boston College 6-4

RavagingBeast

Two game finished, two upsets. #22 Pitt over #10 Buffalo and #21 Northeastern over #11 BC. Looks like those safe picks are not paying off. CSU is up 3-1 over Cal Poly after the first quarter.

SoCoLax2

I've said before I thought that Northeastern should have been higher ranked, this validates my claim. I'm also not surprised Pitt is doing so well. The PCLL is going to be a dogfight this year.

RavagingBeast

CSU ties it up at 8-8 with a minute remaining in the game. Big comeback for Cal Poly.

RavagingBeast

And it's overtime in Fort Collins.

RavagingBeast

CU up 7-6. Not sure what quarter. ASU up 3-0 over Duluth.

RavagingBeast

Cal Poly knocks off CSU in overtime. First home loss for CSU since 2010 against Michigan. All upsets so far. Can Arizona beat Colorado? Can Duluth make a big comeback against ASU?

czechinthepipes

I am a bit surprised that Cal Poly beat CSU... My picks aren't looking too good...

Edit: Also, SFU is giving Chapman a good game. Lead 2-0, Chapman went up 4-2 and SFU just tied it 4-4 with a little left in the 1st half.

czechinthepipes

6-5 SFU at the half.

RavagingBeast

ASU beat UMD 10-3

czechinthepipes

It is 9-9; chapman had a 2 goal lead but SFU just tied it. About 2 minutes left in the 3rd.

And well at least my ASU pick is right....

RavagingBeast

Arizona just beat Colorado 10-9. I am guessing this drops CU out of the top 25 unless they can beat Duluth and/or ASU.

czechinthepipes

I agree, I am really surprised about that result since Arizona seemed a little weak this year. So, what happens now, does CSU lose it's #1 to Cal Poly? What should the top 5 look like? Especially if let's say Chapman loses to SFU?

RavagingBeast

I think Cal Poly is #1 with wins over BYU and CSU. Only loss is to UCSB, but until UCSB beats CSU or Chapman, they don't deserve #1.
1. Cal Poly
2. UCSB
3. BYU
4. CSU
5. We will see.

czechinthepipes

I agree, looks good.

I am really surprised, SFU tied it up at 10 and Chapman just scored; 11-10 chap with a about 8 1/2 minutes left.

_Edit: Chapman scores; 12-10 w/ 7:51 left.

czechinthepipes

Chapman's up 13-11 w/ 5:58 left.

czechinthepipes

Chapman Win's 13-11.

slclax28

RavagingBeast said:
I think Cal Poly is #1 with wins over BYU and CSU. Only loss is to UCSB, but until UCSB beats CSU or Chapman, they don't deserve #1.
1. Cal Poly
2. UCSB
3. BYU
4. CSU
5. We will see.

How can you put Cal Poly over UCSB? I thought you were an alumni RB.... UCSB is undefeated with a win over Cal Poly....

1. UCSB
2.Cal Poly
3a.BYU
3b.CSU

both BYU and CSU both lost to Cal Poly by 1, you can argue for those teams to be either 3/4

RavagingBeast

Cal Poly has better wins than UCSB. You don't just slide everyone up a spot when the #1 team loses. If the Gauchos can remain undefeated after their trip to Colorado next week, then we can start talking about them being #1.

MizzouLaxFan

Using that logic LMU should be out of the top 25 and Chico State should be in . LMU beat Colorado but CO is fading fast Chico has played a tough schedule from the beginning.

RavagingBeast

MizzouLaxFan said:
Using that logic LMU should be out of the top 25 and Chico State should be in . LMU beat Colorado but CO is fading fast Chico has played a tough schedule from the beginning.

Use the quotes. I don't know whose logic you are talking about. We are talking about the difference between one spot in the poll, not whether UCSB should be #10 or #1.

RavagingBeast

8-8 at the half for BYU/Oregon. 21-11 was the final. BYU turned it on in the second half.

wesley_pipes

#'s 10-20 are pretty tough to sort out after this weekend. Where should these teams be ranked in the next poll?
- Buffalo- loss to Pitt, win over Mich St
- Michigan St- loss to Buffalo, win over Pitt
- Pitt- loss to Mich St, win over Buffalo
- Northeastern- win over BC
- BC- loss to N'eastern
- Clemson- previous losses to BC and Buffalo
- Cal
- Minn-Duluth
- Stanford
- Georgia- close loss to Virginia Tech

slclax28

move cal up to 10th? They have only lost 2 games to very good cal poly and oregon teams

wesley_pipes

I'm fine with Cal moving to 10, but after that it's a mess. With Duluth losing to Colorado, they will certainly drop. LMU just lost to unranked Fraser, so they will drop but still have the win over Colorado to keep them in the mix.

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